Brooks vs. Slaughter race could be in the works
The clash of the titans.Or maybe not.A race for the ages could be shaping up between Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and Rep. Louise Slaughter, two of Rochester's best-known names.
But before Brooks makes any decisions, new congressional district lines must be drawn. The redistricting process, which has politicians and their allies talking from Buffalo to Montauk and all points in between, can make or break careers. Perhaps the only thing that equals the importance of the new district lines is the secrecy with which they will be drawn.
About 15 hearings across the state have gathered input from elected officials, the public and good-government groups. But what the actual lines will look like is anyone's guess.
"There are a lot of different factors at play creating great confusion and constant rumors. Nothing official," said Susan Lerner of Common Cause New York. "What does that mean for someone who would like to run for Congress? It's a little bit up in the air."
And so, politicians and the public are left to speculate about which district they'll be in, and who will represent them.In the meantime, speculation abounds that Brooks, a Republican who was elected in November to her third term with 57 percent of the vote and raised close to a half-million dollars this year for her own campaign and more for her party, would take on Slaughter, the 24-year incumbent who started serving in the Monroe County Legislature in 1976. Observers have called the potential race a "fair fight" between two political heavyweights, and a "classic matchup."
"They're both women who tend toward substance in their commentary," said Paloma Capanna, who teaches in the political science department at Rochester Institute of Technology. "In that sense I do think it will be a top-line professional race."
The possibility that the county executive would run was even an issue in her campaign this year, when the website of Brooks' opponent, Brighton Supervisor Sandra Frankel, said that Brooks would spend 2012 campaigning against Slaughter.
Democrats and Republicans from Monroe County are lobbying for one or two districts to cover the county, instead of the current configuration, which splits it into quarters.
In November, Slaughter said she expects a challenger and that she takes all opponents seriously, when asked specifically about a Brooks challenge."It's a great privilege to represent my neighbors in Congress and hope to continue doing so to strengthen the Rochester economy and rebuild America's competitiveness in the world," Slaughter said in a statement Friday.
Brooks declined to talk about the possibility of race for this story.In the past she has not ruled anything out and has said that she, too, hopes the majority of the county is represented by one person, not four. She will begin a third term in January, and said she expects to serve a full four years.
But the district, now labeled the 28th, would need to encompass more of Monroe County -- and more Republican-friendly towns -- than it does now in order for Brooks to consider it.
"I'm not saying Maggie's going to run," said Monroe Conservative Party Chairman Tom Cook, who is close to Brooks. "Everything, everywhere depends on the lines."
The 28th District includes Rochester, parts or all of Brighton, East Rochester, Hamlin, Greece, Irondequoit, Penfield and Perinton, tiny parts of Chili, Gates and Parma; Niagara Falls, part of Buffalo and a stretch of rural towns along Lake Ontario.
Brooks' supporters talk about her strong showing in the November election, her strength on the campaign trail, her experience on a federal Medicaid commission, and her favorability rating, measured at 59 percent in an October poll.
"Maggie would be a formidable opponent under any circumstances," said conservative radio host Bill Nojay, noting Brooks' win last month. "The best efforts of the Democrats to tarnish her have failed."
But if she runs, Brooks will need to address issues she hasn't had to talk about as county executive, such as national security, foreign policy and social problems.
"I've never really gotten a sense from Brooks about her thoughts on anything federal," said Capanna, who has run for office with Democratic support. "I don't know if she could match (Slaughter) on any level."
Slaughter, ranking member on the House Rules Committee and one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress, has made national headlines over the last month with her support for rules barring members of Congress from using knowledge gained in the course of their governmental duties to inform their stock trades. She has also led more than 50 other members in asking that questions about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas's financial disclosures be referred to the U.S. Attorney General, in light of his wife's professional interests.
As high as Brooks' popularity appears to be, Slaughter supporters say that she faced an adversarial redistricting situation in 2001 and won, forcing the resignation of Buffalo-area Democrat John LaFalce, who was put in the same district as Slaughter.
"She's a cross between (college football coach) Knute Rockne and Dolly Parton," said Ove Ovemyer, who is active in Democratic politics and in the public employee union CSEA. "She's a tough, tough fighter. She's smart."
Slaughter has been fundraising at a quick pace, holding an event in Rochester Nov. 28, and at least six others since the beginning of September, according to the Sunlight Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based transparency advocacy group that tracks fundraising invitations.
She had about $310,000 on hand as of Sept. 30. Brooks, meanwhile, would need to raise donations specific for a congressional run; she cannot use money raised by her county executive campaign committee.
New York will lose two congressional districts, based on the state's slow population growth relative to other states. It's not been made public as to which incumbent will be upstate's biggest loser.
The 26th District, represented by Rep. Kathy Hochul, D-Amherst, Erie County, was once seen as fragile because of her late entry into the delegation, following her win during a May special election.
But Hochul has proven to be a competent fundraiser, able to hold her own on national television and a frequent visitor to the far corners of her sprawling district, which includes most of Greece, Parma, Sweden, Livingston County and Buffalo's northern suburbs.
Rep. Tom Reed, R-Corning, Steuben County, has also had success fundraising, and now has a place on the powerful Ways and Means Committee. He represents the 29th District in the Republican-friendly Southern Tier, and covers some Rochester suburbs, including Gates and Pittsford, and said he would like to continue to represent the places he represents now.
Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, R-Onondaga, Onondaga County, could be less secure, in part because of her narrow victory against Rep. Dan Maffei in 2010, and the fact that Democrats believe the district is one they can win back. Buerkle has also raised less money this year than her freshman Republican peers.
The uncertainty has not stopped the speculation among Republicans about who would be Brooks' successor should she run and win. Names that come up in conversations about a possible successor include Penfield Supervisor Tony LaFountain and state Sen. Joseph Robach.
LaFountain was just elected to a second term and said he is focused on that, though he is aware of the conversations about his possible run."I will never say never," he said. "However, where I can be the most effective and where I can add the most value is at the local level here in Penfield."
Robach showed little interest in being county executive."I honestly try and do more service and less politics," Robach said. "I'm just trying to do a good job serving my constituents."
Gates Supervisor Mark Assini said he also is interested in running for Congress, if the conditions were right, but said there are many things that would need to fall into place.
"Until the lines are drawn I'm not going to make any decision."JTERRERI@DemocratandChronicle.com
